# MATH200/ME50, Statistics

Fall 2013, T 6:30–9:20, room 283A (Stan Brown)

Fall 2013, T 6:30–9:20, room 283A (Stan Brown)

Welcome! Please bookmark this page and check back here at least once a week, whenever you miss a class, or when new material is announced in class.

All news through
**12 Dec**
Latest email to the class:
**20 Dec**

**12 Dec**
Grades have been
posted, and you can pick them up in myTC3/myInfo. If you’d
like a detailed computation of your grade, please send me an email
from your TC3 account.

On the final exam, the class as a whole did quite well, better than I have seen for some time. Scores ranged from 47.5 to 118 (40% to 98%). N=15, median=90.5 (75%), mean=86.5 (72%), SD=23.2 (19%). There were three A’s (108 or 90% and up). That’s extremely good, since it omits the students who skipped the final exam. Seven students did better on the final exam than their quiz averages, also unusually good.

- Schedule and Assignments
- Your To-Do List
- Sleep Lab
- Shoe-Size Lab
- Graph paper in case you need it for the first two labs
- ESP Lab
- Field Project

The handouts are marked with helpful icons. A full explanation of the icons is available, and most browsers will also show a “tool tip” if you just hover your mouse over the icon.

Most of these won’t actually be handed out. You can read them on the Web and decide whether you want a printed copy. If you see some old revision dates, don’t worry: some of them don’t need to change much from one semester to the next.

- free eTextbook: Stats without Tears
- Statistics Symbol Sheet
- TI-83/84 Troubleshooting

- Recommended Statistics Books
- UCLA Statistics Case Studies — real-life applications you can work yourself (accessed 2012-03-25)
- On-line statistics courses:
- Little Handbook of Statistical Practice (accessed 2012-03-25) by Gerald Dallal of Tufts U, with examples from nutrition and medicine
- HyperStat Online Statistics Textbook (accessed 2012-03-25) by David Lane of Rice U (with cartoons!)
- e-Handbook of Statistical Methods (accessed 2012-03-25) at NIST, aimed at science and engineering
- Collaborative Statistics by Barbara Illowsky and Susan Dean, from the College Open Textbooks Community

- Excel may not be the best choice for statistical computations, especially Excel 2007 and below:
- Problems with Excel by Julian Wells (includes several useful links)
- On the Accuracy of Statistical Procedures in Microsoft Excel 2007 by David Heiser
- The Accuracy of Statistical Distributions in Microsoft Excel 2007 by A. Talha Yalta

Excel 2010 has some new statistics functions that may address the problem. I haven’t seen any definitive papers yet.

- Your To-Do List
- Thoughts on Opening Night
- Advice from Your Fellow Students
- eTextbook Chapter 1
- Solutions for Chapter 1
- Viewer’s Guide to Against All Odds Part 1, “What Is Statistics?” (for some sections)

- Excel and your calculator generate pseudo-random numbers,
but Random.org
has lots of
**true random number generators**, including numbers, coin flips, and dice rolls. -
In class we mentioned the 1936 fiasco of a presidential election poll.
Read about it at
Classic Polling Surprises (accessed 2012-03-25) and
Introduction to Polling (accessed 2012-03-25).
The original Literary Digest article can be found at Landon in a Landslide: The Poll that Changed Polling (accessed 2012-03-25).

- If observational studies can’t show that A causes B, how do we know that smoking causes lung cancer? See Causation by Steve Simon.
- Alternating Treatments by Steve Simon gives lots of examples why you need to randomize your samples.
- What’s wrong with surveys where respondents select themselves? See Web Polls by Steve Simon.

- eTextbook Chapter 2
- Solutions for Chapter 2

- The Joy of Stats video: Hans Rosling shows lots of great ways to present data (accessed 2012-03-25). Don’t miss the segment “200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes”, also available separately (accessed 2012-03-25).
- just for fun: self-referential graphs
- The Best Stats You’ve Ever Seen video: Hans Rosling uses descriptive stats to explode the myth of First World and Third World (accessed 2012-03-25).
- MATH200A Program part 1 can be used to make histograms.
- ticalc.org has five programs to make pie charts. Though I haven't evaluated them in depth, PIEGRAPH.ZIP looks most interesting based on the screen shots.
- STEMLEAF.ZIP (1 KB) is a TI-83/84 program that makes stemplots

- eTextbook Chapter 3
- Solutions for Chapter 3

- In-depth material referred to in the eTextbook:
- Measures of Shape: Skewness and Kurtosis
- MATH200B Program part 1 computes skewness and kurtosis

- eTextbook Chapter 4
- Solutions for Chapter 4

- In-depth material referred to in the eTextbook:
- Least Squares — the Gory Details
- Inferences about Linear Correlation
- MATH200B Program part 6 for inferences about linear correlation

- If correlation is not Causation, how do we know that smoking causes cancer? Steve Simon tells you.
- Under Chapter 12 are several more inferences you can make about correlation and regression.

- eTextbook Chapter 5
- Solutions for Chapter 5

- extended examples of probability: Probability of Shared Birthdays, We the Jury ..., and Medical False Positives and False Negatives
- False positives and the war on terror, by Sam Savage and Howard Wainer: False Positives Calculator and explanation (PDF) (accessed 2012-03-25)
- For more about the first-digit phenomenon, see Benford’s Law at Mathworld (accessed 2012-03-25). One way it’s used to detect cheating is at Following Benford’s Law, or Looking Out for No. 1 (accessed 2012-03-25).

- eTextbook Chapter 6
- Solutions for Chapter 6

- eTextbook Chapter 7
- Solutions for Chapter 7

- Is Human Height Bimodal? (PDF) (accessed 2012-03-25) gives μ and σ for heights of US men and women from the US NHANES study.
- What is a normal distribution? by Steve Simon gives an overview with diagrams.

- eTextbook Chapter 8
- Solutions for Chapter 8
- Sample Variability Lab (Roulette) (some classes)
- Viewer’s Guide to Against All Odds Part 18, “The Sample Mean and Control Charts” (some classes)

- The Behavior of the Sample Mean by Gerald Dallal — pictures show how sample means are distributed and why that distribution is different from the shape of the population.

- eTextbook Chapter 9
- Solutions for Chapter 9
- In-depth material referred to in the eTextbook:
- See below for two handouts used with Chapters 9 through 12, including an extra cheat sheet.

- We don’t do it in this class, but if you want to know how to compute confidence intervals about σ, the population standard deviation, see MATH200B Program part 5 or Inferences about One Population Standard Deviation.
- Confidence Interval with Zero Events by Steve Simon gives the “rule of three” for calculating a confidence interval when np̂(1−p̂) = 0.

- These two handouts apply to Chapters 9 through 12, and they help you choose the right case for analyzing a given situation:
- Inferential Statistics: Basic Cases

(Use your own cheat sheet plus this one on quizzes and the exam.) - Triage: Which Inferential Stats Case Should I Use?

(Use it on line for the interactive features.)

- Inferential Statistics: Basic Cases
- Look at this one after you’ve spent a week or two on hypothesis tests: Top 10 Mistakes of Hypothesis Tests

- eTextbook Chapter 10
- Solutions for Chapter 10
- Seven Steps of Hypothesis Tests is a handy reference summary.
- In-class exercise (some sections): M&Ms Lab: Inferences for One Population

- eTextbook Chapter 11
- Solutions for Chapter 11
- The handouts under Chapters 9–12: Inference apply to all hypothesis tests.

- Number Needed to Treat by Steve Simon— statistical significance and practical significance, with examples from medical studies

- eTextbook Chapter 12
- Solutions for Chapter 12
- The handouts under Chapters 9–12: Inference apply to all hypothesis tests.

- Study of the Therapeutic Effects of Intercessory Prayer

This abstract (accessed 2012-03-25) gives the sample sizes and incidence of complications, but does not show the incidence of mortality other than to say it was “similar across the 3 groups.” The full report in PDF is here (accessed 2013-09-09). - Confidence Intervals for Goodness of Fit, with Excel workbooks

These are not part of the course syllabus, but are included for those who would like to learn more.

- Inferential Statistics Cases contains additional cases beyond the ones required for class
- Inferences about Linear Correlation, with Excel workbook
- Inferences about Linear Regression, with Excel workbook
- Inferences about One Population Standard Deviation, with Excel workbook; there’s also a TI-83/84 procedure at MATH200B Program part 5
- All three of the above, and more, are included in MATH200B Program — Extra Statistics Utilities for TI-83/84 with a downloadable TI-83/84 program.
- One-Way ANOVA

- Review (includes practice problems)
- Solutions to Review Problems
- The handouts under Chapters 9–12: Inference apply to all hypothesis tests.

- How to Succeed in Math includes Why is Math so Hard? | How to Study Math | How to Take a Math Test | How to Read a Math Book | How to Work a Math Problem
- Math Students’ FAQ

- Course Outline — policies for this course
- Can I Use a TI-89 for Statistics Class?
- Two grade calculators: a downloadable 36 KB Excel spreadsheet and the pencil-and-paper version
- Student Raise of Grade Form
- Course Debriefing
- Student Responses to Course Debriefing

This page is used in instruction at Tompkins Cortland Community College in Dryden, New York; it’s not an official statement of the College. Please visit www.tc3.edu/instruct/sbrown/ to report errors or ask to copy it.

For updates and new info, go to http://www.tc3.edu/instruct/sbrown/stat13c/